I see that this recent news has a paradoxical image. It is good and is bad in one way or the other. The good aspect of this proposal here is that it eliminates the deadlock that the country is facing. You save more lives, restore the livelihood back to normal and have all the parties willingness to take part in election. Now the flip side here is really worst and I see a greater effect on the countries economy, security, infrastructure development, peace, prosperity and sovereignty of a nation as a whole. Let me elaborate each term and explain about the flip side of this issue. Despite the fact that I am not a politician and nor do I have keen interest in politics. But as a proud citizen of the country these are my views.
a) Economy has always been staggering in Nepal. Due to the corruption on the roots of the nation it is really hard change the perspective of people who work for the government. Working for the government basically means that you follow and abide by all laws to serve your country and the government in return takes care of you but we don't see that happening by any means (not in near future). Cutting long story short if Madhesh is an autonomous state then they will enforce their means to create their own economy. Madhesh acts as a bridge between Nepal and India, where Nepal receives all its necessities for day to day work. Now consider these Madheshi leaders trying to create their own economy which is not easy and is really difficult to come up in a short time will become a broker and would tax the remaining part of the country. It's economy would be a clone of Northern India. In other word India would best benefit by manipulating Madhesh. You might argue this issue but stop and picture the scenario for a while, Do you see Madhesh as a separate state doing economically well? India would probably make Madesh a dumping site. It would move all its high polluting factories etc Since Madhesh no longer works parallel and can authorize any deal by it's own. It is really sad that various unpleasant deals would be struck in the near future.
b) As Nepal is divided into two region, there would be a tougher security challenge even though the deal mentions that Madhesi people would be integrated into Nepal army. In near future I am hopeful that Madhesi's are going to create their own law enforcement and their own army as any autonomous state would do. This means the hostility between Madhesh and the rest of the country would increase enormously . Any hostile action would create fresh agitation where you would have Madhesi's unwillingness to cooperate with Nepalese government. Line's would be drawn and we would have a border between Madhesh and other parts of the country.
c) Since it is really difficult to develop hilly areas of the country due to lack of transportation other part of the country would suffer greatly. As Madhesh is grateful for its easy transportation still it's infrastructure would heavily rely on wealthy Indian businessman and big corporations in India. As an autonomous state neither do I see Madhesh rapidly increasing it's infrastructure due to the same reason the rest of the country is facing and it's corruption. Who can guarantee that the leaders of those four Madhesi parties would be honest? And would work wholeheartedly for the Madhesi people as they say? I see a slim margin of hope and a castle build in the sand.
d) As these day from what I have heard from people who have been there and seen it all it is really easy to call off strike in any part of Nepal. with as much as NPR 400,000.00 you could call a nation wide strike. Where is peace? Where did this all started? It's a simple theory, a poor country with high rate of unemployment you could buy youth to do these bands at NPR 100.00 a day. These young bloods would go march out on streets burn few tires and distribute fliers in advance. As Madhesh as an autonomous state the rest of the country will still struggle with creating jobs. This leads to violence. As the country seperates there would be a segregation between Nepalese and Madhesi. As they would like to differentiate each other from whom they are and what they represent. Take an example here, In US history the blacks were segregate and they created agitations and rallies opposing the slavery. But did they demand a separate state? Think this way if you are familiar with the geography of United States, How wise would it be to declare South Carolina as a separate black State with majority being blacks?
e) The sovereignty of a nation greatly depreciates as it gets divided. We have seen many times and the history repeats itself. "Together we stand and divided we fall." Take it for an example, think of your hand working without a thumb or an index figure? How would it affect your daily activities? You would have trouble eating, lifting, fighting and doing whole lot of activities. This is simple, despite of the difference in their size shape their structure those five fingers work together. This is the only reason United States is considered as the most powerful, prosperous, united country in the whole world. By keeping all their difference behind they work together for themselves and their nation.
My hope and my wishes is with mother Nepal and her broken leg (Madhesh). Thank you for reading this post. God bless all.
Peace and Prosperity,
YekloYatri