Model 1: Girija Is To Be Blamed

The NC was in power more than most during the 90s, and Girija was Prime Minister more than most. But instead of consolidating the democracy, the Girijas of the world became the new establishment. Massive corruption was institutionalized. The aspiratinos of the Madhesis, the Janajatis, the Dalits, the women, the poor were not given proper channels. Things fall apart when the center can not hold.

Girija's inflexibility that served so well in his quest for democracy became his bane post-democracy. A party with a clear majority going for mid-term elections is ridiculous. Girija does not know how to save face: he only knows how to corner his opponents into desperation. He does not understand compromise and coalition building is the name of the game in a democratic framework.

Because the moderate center did not perform, the left and the right came in to fill the vacuum.

Model 2: King G Is To Be Blamed

The king gets neither democracy nor constitutional monarchy, or he would not talk of being a "constructive monarch." He has acted a mirror image of the Maoists in trying to fill the vacuum left by the political parties. That might be cunning, and possible in the murky waters of today, but it is not magananimous. The king patronizingly refers to the country as his family. That shows a lack of gut-feel for basic premises in democracy.

King G got Chand to almost double the royal budget. That is NC style brahmaloot many times over.

Model 3: Deuba Is To Be Blamed

Why get rid of the parliament, bro! In the first place....

Model 4: The Maoists Are To Be Blamed

Not even the Chinese are Maoists anymore. The haat bazar in a remote village in Nepal is the market economy in action. The ancient Buddhist republics were democracies in action. Those twins are the necessary engines for growth. Gorbachev knows more about communist theory than Prachanda or Baburam, and he has said the market is it.

The LTTE have been far more lethal than the Maoists can ever hope to be, militarily. And the LTTE were not able to take over Colombo even after 20 vicious years. So the military option is out.

It is laughable of the Maoists to think the king will willingly give over power. Not this king. If anything King G will want to expand his role.

The dictatorship of the proletariat is not about to happen. Instead it is a game of who will blink first, and the two extreme sides do not care if the commoners suffer in the interim.

Supermodel 1: Panchayat II

There is a very real possibility the king decides he has had enough of it, and he plain takes over. Which will be the final blow of the right to the rest of the political spectrum. But such a move will, by definition, engineer a massive backlash. And more than Maoists will rally behind an all-out call for a republic.

Supermodel 2: "Jana Sarkar"

That does not exist in the rural areas either. It is more statelessness, lawlessness. And the urban centers hold strong. It can not be imagined Kathmandu can be taken over by the Maoists.

Not going to happen.

Supermodel 3: Constituent Assembly

This is the only option for quickie peace. But one suspects those now in power will not go for it. Instead they will wait and wait and wait. For the Maoists to possibly tire out. In the mean time, the people be damned.

Iraq will soon have elections for such a thing. And they will do fine for it.

Let the people decide.

But such a move will have to be simultaneous a total disarming of the Maoists.

Supermodel 4: Inflexibility

That Giriaj disease pervades the entire political spectrum. Mero goru ko barhai takka. This more than anything else is holding progress back.

---cntd

The order also prohibits making any direct or indirect public comment regarding the work of the security agencies that could affect the morale of the security agencies.

During the state of emergency, if the security personnel, security official or any assigned official feels it necessary, then he can monitor or ban the use of telephone, radio, fax, television, email or any other form of electronic media.

According to the notice, anyone violation the aforementioned points, disobeying orders, or non-compliance to the same thereof, can be immediately put under house arrest and action may be initiated against such persons. The notice has also stated that whatever is mentioned in the order will be as per the order and points not covered by the order will be as per existing laws.

More arrests and intimidation
(please see separate attachment for the latest list of people arrested)

Nanda Bhandari, Secretary of Nepal Bar Association, Appelate Court Unit, Dang, and Lok Prasad Pant, President of Civic Society, Dang were arrested by security personnel on 4th February 2005.

Indu Sharma, a student leader of the Nepali Congress-affiliated Nepal Student Union was arrested from inside the Saraswoti Campus, Sorakhutte, Kathmandu on 6th February 2005.

Meanwhile, the Nepali BBC Service reported that the President of Federation of Nepalese Journalists (FNJ) Taranath Dahal has not been arrested. Netra KC of BBC Nepali service, was arrested and detained for three hours in an army barrack in Nepalgunj and then released.

There are reports from around the country, including from Biratnagar and Nepalgunj that the local administration and Royal Nepal Army are calling the journalists to their offices and warning them not to publish any news or views against the king's directive.

Army personnel "visit" human rights organization

The army has apparently continued their attempts to track and arrest human rights defenders. Army personnel visited the office of the peace and human rights network, Collective Campaign for Peace (COCAP), at Anamnagar, Kathmandu on Friday, 4 February, at 5:30 pm and on Sunday, 5 February, at 9:00 am. They were asking the whereabouts of the coordinator of COCAP.

Pro-democracy and anti-monarchy demonstrations start

The Nepal Communist Party of Nepal (Unity Centre Mashal) held a surprise torch rally from Bhotahity, Kathmandu yesterday evening against the military coup by the king. They also distributed pamphlets denouncing the coup and declaring the start of their movement for Democratic Republic of Nepal.

There were reports that surprise protest rallies against the king's coup were held on 6 February in Ilam, Jhapa and Sunsari districts in east Nepal.

---cntd

Students in various campuses in Kathmandu have started putting up black flags to oppose the king's coup. For instance, such black flags were put up in the women's college of Kathmandu, Padmakanya College, and the Saraswoti Campus, Kathmandu. They were subsequently removed by the security personnel, who warned the college administration that they would face stern action if such scenes were repeated in the campus premises.

The students inside the Padma Kanya College wrote large graffiti-style slogans on the ground of Padma Kanya College: "Republic Area: Strictly Out of Bounds for Gyanendra".

Political weeklies among the first to resist dictatorship

Deshantar, a weekly newspaper close to Nepali Congress, carried news related to the royal takeover. It published the list of leaders arrested and detained. It left the whole second page, the editorial and opinion page, blank, with only one quote at the top by the Abraham Lincoln, "The gun can never be more powerful than people's opinion." Another political weekly, Bimarsha, also close to the Nepali Congress, had adopted a similar strategy of protest and defiance on Friday, 4 February. The Deshantar today also carried the details of the international condemnations against the king's coup. A poem calling for the poets to write more for the people and country was also published, which at this juncture may be interpreted as a call for resistance against the anti-people move by the king.

The Deshantar weekly has claimed that the king has a list of about 1000 pro-democracy political and civil society leaders he wants arrested.

Journalists being laid-off by private media houses

There are credible reports that private FM radio stations, television channels and the newspapers are laying off many of their journalists.

No political editorials

Some of the major papers including the Kathmandu Post did not carry any editorial today. Those which did were related to non-political issues. The editorial by Kantipur daily complained about the inconvenience caused by the continued cut off of phone lines.

Human rights organizations continue their demands for restoration of democracy and human rights

Human rights organizations continued condemning the royal takeover and demanding restoration of democracy and human rights. The first joint statement was issued on Thursday, 3 February, by representatives of 14 human rights organizations, and the second was issued on Friday, 4 February, by 25 human rights organizations. Krishna Pahadi, the leading human rights activist of Nepal issued another strong statement yesterday. It is to be noted that the government announced on 2 February that any criticism of the king's move would result in serious consequences.

--cntd


Tourism industry suffering

Tourism related businesses including the travel agencies and hotels have reported extremely high number of cancellations of bookings. After the cold and snowy winter, this is the period when the tourist season starts. Businessmen blamed the international publicity related to the king's coup and especially the closure of telephone and internet services for the sharp rise in such cancellation of bookings.

Human rights worker felicitated by the new minister

One of the human rights workers, president of Nepal Human Rights Organization, Sudeep Pathak, was felicitated this afternoon by the newly appointed Minster for Education and Sports, Radha Krishna Mainali, for his contribution to the cause of human rights and peace.
Indications towards formation of a negotiation committee by the government

There were reports that the government has indicated that it might form a Negotiation Committee soon to attempt to start talks with the Maoists. The former Chairman of the Royal Council Standing Committee, Kesharjung Rayamajhi and the Minister for Culture, Tourism and Civil Aviation, Buddhi Raj Bajracharya hinted that in a talk program at Reporter's Club this afternoon. The Maoists have however stated that they will not negotiate with king Gyanendra whom they termed "national betrayer". They have instead announced that they will strive for the establishment of a people's republic of Nepal.


Regular E-Updates by the Nepal Democracy Desk(s) in Kathmandu: dozens of pro-democracy activists based in Kathmandu have started this e-update from 5 Feb 2005, five days after King Gyanendra staged the military coup on February 1 2005, suspended all civil liberties, jailed political leaders, muzzled the media, and continues his reign of terror with daily arrests of political and civil society leaders despite the near universal condemnation of his authoritarian move. this is dedicated to the people of Nepal who deserve more, not less, democracy to correct the ills of our country)

News:

- http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?storyID=7551297&type=topNews
...royalist government will soon appoint negotiators who will hold unconditional peace talks with Maoist rebels .... both sides admit they cannot win on the battleground and can only fight to strengthen their hand in any future peace talks .....

- http://www.ndtv.com
The army is not treating the politicians well .... India dreads the prospect of Maoist takeover in Nepal ....

- http://news.ft.com/cms/s/afef2baa-78af-11d9-9961-00000e2511c8.html
Gyanendra's royal coup already appears to have backfired.....he has always had a taste for power.....When King Birendra in 1990 agreed to establish democracy in the isolated Hindu kingdom, Gyanendra rowdily disputed the move. Similarly, the younger sibling was reported to be critical of the allegedly soft response of the Royal Nepal army to the Maoist insurgency when it began in 1996......Gyanendra appears to believe much more readily in his divine right to rule than either his brother or his father did.....Many who would otherwise revile the brutal Maoist insurgents now express a sneaking sympathy with their demand for a republic.....Gyanendra's move was deliberately timed as close as possible to the summit so that he could claim legitimacy by shaking hands with Manmohan Singh.....Yashwant Sinha, India's last foreign minister, who knows the king well. "This reckless step has not only given the Maoists fresh impetus but it might ultimately lead to the abolition of the monarchy. It certainly makes it easier for India to imagine such an outcome."......Many who have dealt with him remark on his intelligence and quick wit.....

- http://news.independent.co.uk/world/asia/story.jsp?story=608387
A picture on the front page showed a statue from the temple to the Hindu god Vishnu covered with pigeon droppings. ....Yesterday's Kathmandu Post had no editorial, perhaps a sign that the royal censors have caught up with the journalists. A front-page item on the victims of a drink-driving accident some time ago seemed out of place, but then, King Gyanendra's son, Crown Prince Paras, is alleged to have killed four people in drink-driving accidents.

- http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1013226.cms
King Gyanendra may soon find out that he has bitten off more than he can chew. The international community has put aid on hold. The Maoists have summarily rejected his overtures. And now, the discredited political parties, which till last week used to fight constantly with each other, are trying to regroup. ....

- http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1012758.cms


- http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=7548621
...Nepal is now destined for a surge in violence as the army-Maoist fighting intensifies and political protests eventually get under way...."The king has never disguised his distrust for political parties' leadership and reflecting the public's disenchantment with them, but the people's lack of support for the parties does not necessarily translate into support for the king."......Successive governments and military offensives have failed to swing the war against the Maoists. Both sides admit they have ground to a strategic stalemate where neither can win on the battleground.......The Maoists, modeled on the former Chinese leader but disowned by Beijing, control large swathes of territory......the dilemma for Nepal's allies was to apply enough pressure on the king to restore democracy, without strengthening the rebels

- http://www.indianexpress.com/full_story.php?content_id=64113
The Indian military assistance is now worth close to Rs 374 crore......

News clips:

- http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?c_id=466&ObjectID=10009904
Gyanendra has been trying to take back his late brother's surrender of absolute power in 1990 ever since, and on February 1 he made his move. ....the Maoists are real ....They were winning already, but now they are going to start winning a lot faster. Gyanendra's Government has lost its legitimacy, he is not personally popular, and he has never displayed any notable political or military talent. .....No Indians were killed last year by Islamist terrorists except in the troubled states of Jammu and Kashmir, but more than 500 Indians were killed by Maoists. ......in democracies as in ecology, every imaginable niche is filled..... how the relationship between the two giant Asian neighbours evolves as they grow over the next generation or so to match the United States in wealth and power.....That is why India (and also the US and Britain, chief purveyors of arms to the Nepalese Government) should act now to force the stupid king to step back and restore the democratic constitutional order. ....No matter how incompetent democratic politicians are (and Nepal's do not lead the class), it is only they who have the legitimacy to resist the Maoists successfully.

- http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?storyID=7551297&type=topNews
..daring him to "fill the jails"......

- http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1014377.cms
Rs 300/min: Satphones beat Nepal ban ....

- http://www.indianexpress.com/full_story.php?content_id=64293



- http://www.thestatesman.net/page.news.php?clid=2&theme=&usrsess=1&id=67922

Nepal Congress to join hands with Maoists

SILIGURI, Feb. 7. ? The Maoist movement in Nepal is likely to gather mainstream political momentum soon. As part of the planned movement of political parties of Nepal in a same platform, the Nepal Congress Party has decided to welcome Maoists and join hands with them.

During an interview with The Statesman today, the central committee member of Nepal Congress Party and the party organisation chief, Mr Krishna Prasad Sitoula said that almost all democratic political parties of Nepal, including Communist parties, have joined hands to put up a fight against the Nepal?s King Gyanendra, who has dismissed the government and taken all powers in his hand.

Mr Sitoula said that the Nepal Congress, the Nepal Communist Party UML, Janmorcha Nepal, Nepal Mazdoor Communist Party, Nepal Sadbhawna Party, Ananda Devi and alliance of five small Communist parties of Nepal have come together on a platform to start a movement against the monarchy.

He said: ?We are not against the Maoists? demands. We support their ideology regarding the monarchy. But we don?t want the path of violence.? Mr Sitoula added that they would hold discussions with senior Maoists.

Constituent Assembly, Republic, Federalism

- http://nepal.motime.com

South Asian Regional Economic Union

- http://southasianunion.blogspot.com

Reorganized UN

- http://un21.motime.com

The corrupt leaders are joining hands with Terrorists(Maoists). It just makes things easier for the King. Looks like the King made quite a good strategic move.

Congress and Maoists.

- http://www.ndtv.com
- Maoist rebels in Nepal have called for a countrywide road blockade and indefinite strike from February 13......The strike will continue until King Gyanendra withdraws his decision to take over power......Meanwhile, a senior leader of Nepalese Congress has proposed an alliance with Maoists to help restore democracy in the Himalayan kingdom....."We will contact Maoists to come with us for the cause of democracy," said Nepali Congress leader and former MP from Baitari, Vinaydhwaj Chand.....He claimed there was no harm in taking the support of Maoists for the restoration of democracy in Nepal, but the movement should be peaceful.

- http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/Story.asp?Article=103902&Sn=WORL&IssueID=27325
NEW DELHI: Two senior Nepalese politicians sheltering in India yesterday asked Maoist insurgents not to hold talks with King Gyanendra ...... The royalist government headed by the king earlier in the day offered to hold unconditional talks with the rebels to end the insurgency ....

- http://in.rediff.com/news/2005/feb/08claude.htm
The coup renders a complex situation even thornier. .....The Maoists on their side are looking for new sources of income as the scope and the extent of their movement is increasing...... In 2002, the then Chinese ambassador to Nepal had explained: 'China labels the insurgents as anti-government outfits, and we never call them as Maoists. They misuse the name of Chairman Mao, which impairs the image of the great leader of China.'.....

The SEBS thread on the topic:

- http://www.sebsonline.org/forum/forum_view.aspx?F=1&T=60355

- http://hindustantimes.com
Guess who?s backing Nepal coup? VHP ............

- http://news.ft.com/cms/s/1fb46b9c-7a1a-11d9-ba2a-00000e2511c8.html
The rally will be the first independent mass gathering

- http://www.indianexpress.com/full_story.php?content_id=64339
Maoists here in India too are planning demonstrations in five cities on February 13 ....will hold rallies and demonstration in Delhi, Chennai, Mumbai, Kolkata and Chandigarh.

And as the Maoists prepare to organise solidarity demonstrations, the trickle of Nepalese politicians into the country continues. Rajendra Mahto, general secretary of Nepal Sadbhavana Party (A), today met the media in the Capital and appealed to his ??countrymen and political forces to unitedly launch a struggle against the authoritarian regime??. He did not condemn the Maoists but hoped that they would be a part of the peaceful struggle against the tyranny of King Gyanendra.

- http://news.ft.com/cms/s/afef2baa-78af-11d9-9961-00000e2511c8.html
The reckless monarch ....

- http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?storyID=7568920

Sunning himself on his roof, guarded by heavily armed police in plain clothes or blue camouflage, the leader of the largest party in the ousted four-party coalition, Madhav Kumar Nepal, cheerily tells a journalist: "I am under house arrest."

Close by, at a busy roundabout in central Kathmandu, bored police in riot gear fiddle with their lathis, or bamboo sticks, adjust their protective gear and ask a foreigner: "Can you get me a security job in London? How much do they pay?"

- http://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/09/international/asia/09nepal.html
.. a group of nine United Nations human rights officials criticized the king ....

- http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/131613/1/.html
Nepalese leaders could be detained for up to three months .... army's spokesman warned of a long and bloody battle ....Gurung estimated the strength of the Maoists, who have been fighting to install a communist republic in Nepal since 1996, at "anything from 6,000 to 7,000" hardcore combatants, a militia of 20,000 to 25,000 and about 100,000 sympathisers. ...."Any time we kill a combatant then his rank is filled by another one ... a militia maybe and then a sympathiser is trained to become a militia." ....Right now, the general added, the rebels' military wing was stronger than their political faction which is why they had to be engaged in battle. ....

- http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/HRW/ad3dc83127451441572c35312a82758d.htm
..a campaign of arbitrary arrests, censorship, and general repression...the security forces, which have a history of widespread and serious violations of human rights.... "Our chief concern is that some of those being arrested may never be seen again....Among the immediate targets for arrest were the political leaders upon whom the King expressed scorn in his televised address....twenty-seven national political leaders are either under house arrest or in detention, including every prime minister since 1990......Virtually the entire human rights activist community has been forced into hiding....At a meeting with newspaper editors, the King's secretary reportedly stated that he would be unable to "help" if the military decided to "disappear" journalists or editors "for a few hours," a disturbing statement in a country that according to the U.N. had the highest number of reported new "disappearances" in the world in both 2003 and 2004.....The BBC's Nepali news service has been forced to suspend its broadcasts....Human Rights Watch is deeply concerned that abuses by the security forces will increase dramatically in the absence of international and local monitoring mechanisms, aggravating Nepal's already severe human rights crisis...."It is crucial for the international community to demonstrate that it will not lightly accept the King's abusive actions," said Adams. "If they act with a common purpose, the King and the army will have little choice but to reverse course.

- http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1015440.cms
- http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1015465.cms
Engagement, not estrangement is the new Indian buzzword on Nepal. Having displayed its displeasure about the royal power grab in no uncertain terms, India now looks prepared to play the game of realpolitik. .. "The king has bitten off more than he can chew. There are no spectacular military results: Captains and majors are patrolling editorial offices, practicing censorship and managing the emergency."

- http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1014603.cms

- http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/131427/1/.html
The 80,000-strong Royal Nepalese Army has remained faithful to its supreme commander...The top brass includes a majority from families loyal to the king....."quasi-military coup d'etat"......Analysts say the king may extend military control over the country of 27 million people by encouraging officers to move into civilian jobs as happened in Pakistan after General Pervez Musharraf staged a bloodless coup in October 1999. .....reduced his backing to "the Royal Nepalese Army, a small band of conservative loyalists and a handful of opportunists......that strategy is risky because the army lacks the troop strength to put down the Maoists who are present in all 75 districts of the mountainous country and launch attacks and road blockades at will outside the capital. .....The Nepalese Army was founded in 1762 and today consists of 22 battalions and 44 independent companies. .....Military spending has increased dramatically under Gyanendra. The official army budget was just 9.2 billion rupees (130.8 million dollars) in the 2004-2005 financial year, compared to a real figure estimated of 295 million dollars in the CIA's World Factbook.
.......Including funds spent on police, security accounts for nearly 15 percent of the 115.2 billion rupees annual budget, a Nepalese government official said...........With police, paramilitary and home ministry security forces, the government has 144,000 men to combat the Maoist insurgency, far below the ratio needed to counter insurgency given Nepal's terrain which runs from alpine to jungle, Sahni said. ..........The volunteer army recruits as needed drawing from a pool of young people eager for jobs in one of the 10 poorest countries in the world...."The military first of all is a good job and that ensures loyalty," he said. "Secondly there are perks like good housing, privileges for education and medical care and finally it reaches into every part of society giving respect."

- http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0502/S00108.htm
It is high time that people stop fanaticizing about the possibility of a stable, democratic polity when every fundamental element required for a democratic setting has been systematically eroded by the Maoists and our flawed politicians.....Aside from our corrupt and ineffective politicians, who have given up their chances at redemption, the Maoists are the gravest threat to Nepal's sovereignty.



I have been pasting a lot of these news pieces recently. I hope (1) they help readers save time, and (2) they provide for the background for the comments I do make. Kind of like with many political blogs.

Two top political blogs:

(1) http://instapundit.com/
(2) http://dailykos.com/

Both quote extensively. I have been following the same model at this thread.

I am selective in what quotes I present. That gives my slant to what I pick, and might save time for readers hoping to scan the stuff and not have to read major news articles.

Method. I get my news by searching for "nepal" at http://news.google.com

I recommend the method to any and all.

And, of course, I hope to make extensive comments. I have my opinions. Pretty strong ones too. But I try to, at times, step back and give the benefit of doubt also to differing viewpoints.

To pade_queen no.1 it looks like you are very intellectual person. I think you have very good sense of respect for every human beings. I got frens from diverse areas, Kudos.

Furthermore, to Nepalkochori it looks like you don't know a lot about human psycology coz what it says is "whatever gets feed into human brain comes out of his mouth" meaning "bollyhood" has currupted the mind-set of nepalese, especially people living in Terai, on top of that, everybody enjoys hindi movies and housewives watch "dhrabahik" that should include you too. By the way people who were influenced by "hollywood" came west and whoever watched "bollywood" still wonder why we talk about Indians. Well you probably speak in hindi too sometimes don't you. So stop being hyprocrate and learn to love people do not judge them regardless...... but I'm proud that you are so patroitic.....so am I... holla.

Two very different viewpoints from two foreign sources:

(1) http://us.rediff.com/news/2005/feb/10swadas.htm
There is no alternative but for India to make the defeat of the Maoist insurgency in Nepal its immediate and unwavering goal. The Royal Nepal Army has to be given all the assistance to mount an offensive against the insurgents to force them back to the negotiating table. The restoration of democracy is a medium and long-term imperative.

(2) http://www.iht.com/bin/print_ipub.php?file=/articles/2005/02/09/opinion/ednepal.html
In Nepal, only democracy can defeat the Maoists.


There is a lot of grey area in the whole debate, of course. But the question is, do you like Musharraf? Is he legitimate? Do you like the autocracy in Bhutan, the military junta in Burma, the communist dictatorship in China?

Democracy is not a situational thing. It is universally good and true. It is not good or not depending on time or place. Personally I stand on democracy's side.

More.

- http://www.indianexpress.com/full_story.php?content_id=64270
To step up pressure on Nepal, the Left has called for a national convention on February 24 for the restoration of democracy in Nepal. The Left parties have forged a front of all the non-NDA, non-Congress groups ? including the RJD, SP, SJP, CPI(ML) ? in fact all those groups who mounted an offensive for multi-party democracy in Nepal in 1989.

- http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=atIRbjUOnO_o&refer=asia
- http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/Story.asp?Article=104038&Sn=WORL&IssueID=27327
...a Supreme Court judge yesterday ordered his newly-appointed government of loyalists to explain the arrest of a former bar association chief... ...

- http://www.newkerala.com/news-daily/news/features.php?action=fullnews&id=70157
After a telephone conversation with Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz Tuesday, King Gyanendra reportedly expressed confidence that Pakistan would set a new date for the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation summit originally scheduled for Feb. 6-7 in Dhaka.

I have also been following the elections in Bihar. What a contrast! The thriving democracy despite the poverty and the sometimes lawlessness.

The average Indian voter "gets" it. As in, see how they reacted to Indira's emergency rule.

News items.

- http://sify.com/news/international/fullstory.php?id=13668587
In their first major offensive after the royal takeover, Maoists launched attacks on government buildings and police establishments, including a prison in far western Nepal, killing five police men and taking away nearly 100 inmates.

- http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1017502.cms
Those freed include founder leader of Nepali Congress and former PM Krishna Prasad Bhattarai, leader of CPN-UML Shahana Pradhan, former PM Lockendra Bahadur Chand, chairman of Rastriya Prajatantra Party Pashupati Shamsher Rana, chairman of Nepal Labours and Peasants Party Narayanman Bijucksche and chairman of Nepal Sadhbhawana Party Badri Prasad Mandal and chairperson of NSP Anandi Devi.

- http://www.progress.org/2005/fpif61.htm
by Kanak Mani Dixit
February 2005
First, he was taking over as executive monarch on the basis of a personal decision. Second, the royal address was full of denigrating references to political parties, who are the intermediaries for pluralism and democratic practice anywhere in the world. ..... the Royal Nepal Army's fight against the highly motivated and increasingly brutal insurgents thus far has been lackluster. ..... approaches could have included using the inherent powers of kingship to cajole the political parties to work together and establish a political front against the insurgents. But the king's deeply held feelings toward the political parties seems to have blocked off this avenue toward resolution. .... it is also likely that the Maoists will try to make common cause with the political parties. ..... the royal action will add strength to the insurgents' demand for a king-less republican constitution and government, a call that has been taken up with alacrity lately by many politicians. ..... In castigating the political parties, King Gyanendra preferred to hark back to the Parliament dissolved three years ago, while keeping silent over the interim period and his rule through palace-appointed prime ministers. This is the period when the peace and security of the country's populace plummeted more than in any previous period. ............

- http://cities.expressindia.com/fullstory.php?newsid=117112
Going by the attitudes of the people towards the monarchy, as revealed in our study, King Gyanendra?s coup has just made him one of the very unpopular figures in Nepalese history,? he said. ..............?Nepal has a very pluralistic society, which is struggling to find the right institutional framework for the nation?s governance.? .... This study of political attitudes of the ordinary Nepalese people, the first-ever study done in Nepal using the survey method, was completed three months back. It found that the Nepalese want a new Constitution and a system where even the Maoists are part of the government, he said. ... ?The Nepalese in general don?t feel so insecure from the Maoists as from the country?s social problems?. ............Expert predicts mass stir in Nepal soon

- http://www.dailypioneer.com
In the face of mounting anarchy let loose by the Maoists, the King indeed had a valid reason to impose Emergency - and this he did according to the provisions of the Nepalese Constitution. The Deuba Government had singularly failed to tackle the situation.



The protest registered by the likes of India, US, UK and the UN: are they mere formalities? Or do they come with follow-throughs?

Should not the political parties respond to the charges levelled against them? What do they have to say about the specific charges?

Jana Morcha now is formally for a Democratic Republic. Where are the rest? Where do they stand?

The king's offer for "unconditional talks," is that to mean the Maoists should not attach any conditions to them? Becaue it is public knowledge as to what the Maoists want? They want elections for a Constituent Assembly. They are not interested in a "tea party" in the name of talks, according to Baburam Bhattarai.

Instead, the king is trying to break open the Maoists into the military wing and the political wing, like he has been able to break up the Sadbhavana, the Congress, the RPP. And is trying to break up the UML by using a Mainali bro.

The raging debate at SEBS Online:

- http://www.geocities.com/paramendra/sebsthread.html

Civil war to escalate.

- http://www.newkerala.com/news-daily/news/features.php?action=fullnews&id=70661
The latest report of the International Crisis Group(ICG) has said that Nepal's King Gyanendra takeover of power will only worsen the situation ....... "King Gyanendra justified his coup on the need to beat back the Maoists, but it will have exactly the opposite effect"

- http://news.newkerala.com/india-news/?action=fullnews&id=70648
India can apply moral pressure and link its stand on normalising its relations with Nepal, including collaboration on the military front and economic assistance to restore status-quo ante before February 1 when King Gyanendra seized power, imposed emergency and clamped press censorship, former Foreign Minister Ram Sharan Mahat told PTI in an interview.

- http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/181_1237418,001300980000.htm
Nepal's coup to intensify civil war: Think tank ..... the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG) projected an intensification of the "civil war" and strengthening of Maoist insurgency .... the only way to achieve peace was "through effective military action combined with a political strategy that undercuts Maoist positions. Neither is possible without a broad-based democratic government."

- http://news.newkerala.com/world-news/?action=fullnews&id=70647
Nepal's Supreme Court has asked the Government to produce former Bar Association chief before it in connection with the habeas corpus petition against his detention.

- http://mnn.gospelcom.net/article/6992
by undermining democracy in the process, he may have strengthened the rebels' position. The Maoists now have less incentive to negotiate than ever.......

- http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,1410419,00.html
police moved swiftly to smother protests in the capital and blocked the US ambassador from visiting senior political leaders under house arrest. .............Political parties say more than 1,000 people have been arrested under laws allowing detention without trial for three months. ....

- http://news.ft.com/cms/s/e6629570-7bd2-11d9-9af4-00000e2511c8.html




What could the political parties do? Could they gather around a Common Minimum Program of a Democratic Republic? Would that be like an umbrella? So far they have not budged. The Congress, UML, they are still for Constitutional Monarchy.

If the parties do not make themselves clearer, how will they approach the people?

what do you think the parties will do? (Just bringing together some things I've read in other postS)

Possible Scenarios:
1. Make an alliance with the Maobaadi (violent OR non-violent), they are themselves terrorits and thus liable to tbe "encountered". Verdict: LOSS

2. Side with the king become Maobaadi's enemy. If Maobaadi win terminated. If King wins, suordinated. Protracted war, marginalized. Verdict: LOSS

3. Be independent. Yeah right, without guns, nobody's gonna listen to them, naturally marginalized. Verdict: LOSS.


Is there a way out for them? Can they SURVIVE?
It's sad if not because they are the last institutions that can (theoretically at least) truly represent the people.

tired, quite a mess, ain't it?

News.

(1) Looks like the king is now asking for 3 months, instead of the 3 years he started with. Looks like the guy is feeling the heat, the pressure.
(2) US, UK, India are going to follow up on their initial protest. It is not going to be a mere formality of words of protest.
(3) Maoist blockade seems to be working.


- http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200502/s1301566.htm
..rebels were massing in the remote west ..... the volume of traffic had dropped drastically .... Two similar transport strikes and road blockades called by the rebels in the past six months were enforced more by threats and psychological intimidation than by physical force. ..... They left the capital empty of essential goods and sparked price rises. ........ Most people in the capital, meanwhile, appeared oblivious to the blockade, which received no publicity in the media that has been heavily censored .... the blockade, which the rebels said would continue until the king reversed his power grab .... Military experts say Nepal's armed forces are ill-equipped to tackle the increasingly deadly Maoist insurgency .... King Gyanendra was reported Saturday by the Himalayan Times English daily as assuring India that the emergency would not last long, amid pressure from New Delhi and Washington, Kathmandu's main suppliers of financial aid and military equipment to face down the Maoist threats, for an end to the emergency and arrests of political leaders. .....Political parties claim up to 1,000 people have been rounded up since the king launched his crackdown. The army put the figure at around 100.

- http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L12658714.htm
Rebel chief Prachanda rejected any possibility of talks with the government headed by the king, a day after the interior ministry said it was willing to discuss all demands including a constituent assembly to decide the future of the monarchy. ..... He (Prachanda) urged the international community to stop aid to Nepal .... Kathmandu, a city of 1.5 million people, currently has two weeks of oil and enough food to last a month.....Diplomats worry Nepal could descend into anarchy and become a haven for international militants or drug traffickers...........

- http://news.newkerala.com/india-news/?action=fullnews&id=71264
The sight of policemen and military personnel was confined only to city limits and regular police outposts appeared deserted barely 10 km outside the town....... However, Maoists observed the anniversary in several villages with roadside rallies addressed by local area commanders of the self-styled "red army"..........In Khajura village, barely five km from this town, Maoists distributed sweets after addressing a rally in broad daylight.........Bombs and rallies marked the 10th anniversary

- http://news.newkerala.com/india-news/?action=fullnews&id=70945
.... the extremists have threatened to launch

their "final assault"

Saturday ......Barely 15 km ahead of the large post of the security forces at Shamshergunj, half a dozen armed Maoists were openly stopping all vehicles for a "check"..........That the rebels were backed by larger contingents under the cover of the forests right behind could not be ruled out. Two completely torched paramilitary trucks at that point further bore testimony to what the Maoists proclaim as their "act of valour"...........Positioned strategically close to a bridge in a densely forested area, the rebels were in combat fatigues and carried semi-automatic and self-loading rifles.............the Maoists' message was simple: "Don't venture out from tomorrow, keep enough food stocks in your homes."...........The Royal Nepalese Army...these uniformed personnel chose to remain blissfully unaware of the rebels not merely camping in the vicinity but making their presence felt quite blatantly. ...........Interestingly, as far as commuters were concerned, the questions posed by the Maoists and the security forces were almost similar.

- http://news.newkerala.com/world-news/?action=fullnews&id=70976
India, the US and Britain are said to be jointly pursuing a strategy on moves for restoration of democracy in Nepal .........made it clear in no no uncertain terms that they were not not amused by the King's actions. ..........the SAARC summit, an event looked forward to by the King in an apparent strategy to get instant international recognition

- http://news.newkerala.com/world-news/?action=fullnews&id=71198
...even though the king had made it clear that human rights were to be observed under all circumstances, his officials in the districts were violating the guidelines...

- http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/132158/1/.html
Nepal's fractured political parties and student groups are crippled by infighting ........February 1, his opponents have done little to mount any sort of challenge to the monarch............a history of infighting will make any alliance unlikely, even in the face of the most recent crisis.............described Nepal's political organizations as "feudal parties, unable to get along on anything". .......... their biggest obstacle is a long-standing disagreement over what shape democracy should take .............The leading Nepali Congress party is demanding the return of the government dissolved by Gyanendra in 2002, while the mainstream Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist wants the election of a constituent assembly. .........The wave of arrests is spreading from high political leadership and goes down to students' movements ........."Now it is time for pro-democratic people to spend more time making plans for long-term strategy rather than reacting immediately because everybody will be arrested," countered one activist with another group, the Collective Campaign for Peace. ........

- http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/181_1239029,001300980000.htm
King Gyanendra is believed to have said that he needs some three months ? 100 days ? to bring the situation in the country under control and remove curbs on citizens.
..........made the promise privately to the US ambassador to Nepal...........the aid could be suspended unless it reverses its decision, releases detainees and removes curbs............The US State Department has expressed concern that the king's move would aggravate the Maoist insurgency............