1. Pradip Nepal

( I think he is an intellectual. Much needed voice in the constituent assembly)

Shirish,

Having Koirala as President, Maoists will have easy access to American Embassy to make their constitution legitimate, and Koirala may help remove the Terrorist tag. It is strategic.

GP

I am confused with some of the sentences written by Nepali Newspapers and also here in Sajha, examples: "landslide win of the Maoist" or "Maoists near 2/3 majority" etc.

My observation is quite opposite. Correct me if I am wrong!

Even if the current trend continues, Maoists won't have even a "simple majority" in CA. Since CA composed of 240 seats (FPTP) + 330 (PR) + 31 (nominated, probably by Girija Prasad Koirala, before Maoist takes charge of the government). My predictions for the Maoists are:

1. They take up to 140 seats out of 240 FPTP seats (58% maximum)

2. They will have one third of the total votes in PR: 110 seats (33%)

3. Total seats they will have= 250 out of 601 seat CA (41.6%)

Even if 31 nominated seats goes to them (which is unlikely!), they will have 281 seats out of 601-seat CA (Maximum of 46.8%).

Am I right ?

OK 

 

Shirish,

 

It’s all speculative. Yours is as good as mine.

 

The legitimacy thing is an old theory (it’s running for three years already), which still might be valid.

 

However, I think there are two new factors that might mitigate it.

 

One, the popular legitimacy Maoist just earned. Then, looking at the pattern (Koiralas’ or NC’s performance in the election), it looks like the voters will be deeply disappointed if Maoist crowns the same old man again. Voters wanted change at any cost. They did not care about lejitimesi sejitimesi. If they cared about this imaginary thing called lejitimesi, they wouldn’t vote the way they did.

 

So, rewarding Koirala might work against Maoist actually.

 

A popular image like the victorious Narahari Acharya instead of morally defeated and indirectly rejected face like GP Koirala might win the both fronts, the voters and the international community.

 

Make that three fronts. This Nepe will be happy too.

 

So I am curious to see how Maoist would assess the value of GP Koirala and read voters’ mind.

 

Nepe

 

 

OK-jee,

You are right. 2/3 is extremely unlikey. They will get a simple majority or, as you are speculating, simply the largest majority. However, that will be enough for them to rule or dominate.  

Nepe 

I voted.. sorry.. posted twice. deleting it.

Like Nepe said it's still fluid, but the Maoists have become the predominant party changing the inter party dynamics significantly regardless of what the final outcome is. There are some check and balances built into the CA so I agree the Maoists will find it difficult to run amuck but, no brainer, the extent of their power will depend on the finally tally.

In my opinion, the Congress or UML should support the government from the outside (but I doubt  they can  resist the temptations of power )

Captain,

 

The lust for the warmth of kursi, on one hand ,and Maoist’s need for more people knowing knots and bolts of the government, on the other, might work towards making the opposition vacant.

 

But that might be good for the civil societies and NGOs. They might get the job. ;-)

 

Nepe

 

 

Ha ha, Nepe, maybe I should apply for that position since no one else seems interested in it - LOL!

Strictly in jest.

Correction:

Ram Sharan Mahat won by 104 votes

Shirish, you mentioned about Maiya Devi Shrestha. I don't know how much you know about her. She is 80+ and she got the ticket because she gives money and land as a donation to NC. She is from my tole and I have yet to see her do one thing to our tole or Bharatpur Nagarpalika -3.

I am sure almost everybody knew she was going to lose to UML not Maoist. In previous election, she got ticket from Gorkha. I hope Chitwane NC learned the lesson from this election.

AX

I have heard about her.

Unfortunately, in elections, heads are counted not the contents.

She has been a very philanthropic lady but I sincerely don't know her potentials for the contributions for making a new constitution which will determine the future of the country.

Voting on the basis of emotions, looks or mere slogans, is not a good idea. (but in reality it happens - it happens in US too).

 

In the past, some well known figures have made mistakes in writing constitution. Hope fully Prachand will realize this and minimize the potential mistakes by hiring experts from international arena.

Its again unfortunate that some of the people who lost could have been very valuable asset. I have heard that Jhakku Prasad's credentials so

People did not realize or do not have the capability to realize what and why they are electing for.

 

Garo cha yaar !!

 

 

 

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