>Personally, I think it's hard to accurately estimate which way
>the CA elections will go but I admire your guts for stepping up
>and making a prediction.
Orion, I was, as they say, "hazarding" my guess. Since I am not claiming accuracy, it was easy.
Some additional guesswork regarding GP and NC's profile.
1. I think, traditionally, NC's leadership and all prominent members were monarchist at heart and out. It started to change only after King's takeover in 2002. Now most members are already pro-republic at heart. Koirala, his kins and others close to him are left (it is interesting to note that Sujata too had a pro-republic fever right after her "escape" from the country after Feb 1 and before returning home).
In the last convention of NC, although GP Koirala was elected the president against Narahari Acharya, it was clear that the vote was for personality than for ideology. In fact, it was reported that apart from Sailaja Acharya and few others, there was not a single person who was not pro-republic. The convention was that dramatic. Even earlier than that, there were indication of NC cadre's shift towards pro-republic position. A meeting of NC's district presidents had declared something to that effect. If you go to the student wing of NC, it does not require any introduction.
So, pro-monarchy position of NC is actually surviving on GP Koirala's strong desire and unrivaled influence alone. (I will come to the theory on GP Koirala's pro-monarchy position shortly)
So, if NC is to go to CA with slogan of "ceremonial monarchy", it will be under the enforcement by GP Koirala. So, If liberty is granted to the candidates, I bet 100% of them will declare their allegiance to republic. Two reasons. One, as I said, the pool from which they will come is already pro-republic. Second, the atmosphere is such that if you say no to republic you are not going to get votes. I don't think NC candidates would go for risking their election when all they need to avoid that is to say three words "I support republic", in just one mass-meeting when GP Koirala is not around.
Once a candidate utters these three words, he will be counted as a pro-republic candidate by now an important power called "civil society" and most importantly by the Maoists. Civil society and the Maoists will never allow that candidate to "deceive" during the drafting of the constitution. (This is one of the reasons why Maoists are not ready to lay down their arms before the election and "civil society" is supporting the Maoist in that.)
So, I think GP Koirala will have very hard time, if not impossible, to able to send the candidates with pro-monarchy or republic-neutral election manifesto. Knowing Koirala's stubbornness, GP Koirala will probably be looking helplessly at his candidates declaring their allegiance to republic themselves during the election.
And all "civil society" and the Maoists will need to insist on republic constitution later is 51% of total candidates who express their allegiance to republic on any one single occasion just to be on the record.
Once they can show that 51% of the candidates have expressed their allegiance to republic during election, they will in no way allow a monarchical constitution to come out. In other words, the fate of the constitution will be sealed by the time the last candidate's result is declared. In other words, there will be no room for GP Koirala or any pro-monarchy power to manipulate the constitution drafting sessions to introduce monarchy if it does not win. As far as monarchy/republic issue is concerned, CA is going to be "winner takes all" and not "inclusive" one to accommodate minority vote.
So, if these assumptions of mine are not way off realism, then republic definitely is going to "win".
2. Now on GP Koirala. It is clear that GP Koirala who held and is holding on to monarchy even when a small pretending that he is not should benefit his party is doing it for some special reason. His pride to keep the identity and legacy of Koirala family and, to some extent, the party too, does appear as one such special reason. Another reason I have speculated is that GP Koirala looks at Nepal from his own eyes. I mean, he sees it not more than his own reflection- a reflection of a man with no degree, average IQ, no reading, no idea about modern ideas and technology, no power to inspire people, no oratory skill, surviving by pure stubbornness and like that. This reflection obviously can not be self-confident enough to "Desh Chalaunu" single handedly. He needs somebody very close but behind the curtain of course, for help you never know when you might need and for sharing some blame if thing did not go very well and so on. Who else than a constitutional King could be that person to the thinking of a person of GP Koirala's intellect ?
So a constitutional king is also a "partner of convenience" to GP Koirala and the future leaders Koirala dreams for Nepal.
This dream, however, has already started to shatter and the tide is so strong GP Koirala will have to let it go sometime before CA sits to draft the constitution.
Even if GP Koirala, the unrivaled leader of open politics in Nepal, managed to pull his helpers and supporters together, an unusual rival has arrived. Prachanda. This man has already started to claim his territory, prachanda tarikale, I should say.
Looking at the impressive style of Prachanda in his KTV interview, I do not think GP Koirala will manage to sell "ceremonial monarchy" to Nepali customers against Prachanda's "democratic republic".
"Tapai_haru Ganatantra_ma aaunus, haami bahudal_ma aayoun". Prachanda is already dragging monarchist GP Koirala around the ring.
Nepe
